A Trifecta for EM Equity Outperformance?
Having been cautious on emerging market (EM) equities for most of 2018, QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions team has recently shifted to a more positive stance, tactically adding to our EM equity allocation. The macroeconomic backdrop is now more supportive of EM, with the combination of the Fed pausing, a steady dollar and China’s easing campaign. Moreover, valuations are supportive and fundamentals are stabilizing. However, risks remain, including a much deeper slowdown in global growth, a breakdown in trade talks, or the Fed pivoting to a more aggressive stance in response to more positive US growth or an inflation surprise. Yet, on balance, we believe that the risks are skewed to the upside, and EM equities are an attractive value proposition, offering an ample risk premium.